Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–0 Chernomorets

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chernomorets

V. Nafikov 86'

T. Gagloev 41'

10/6/2024

First League · Round 13Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz44%

×Draw26%

Chernomorets30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchChernomorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.14

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.43

Chernomorets

1.14

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 51 away

1.57

creates per match

1.04

1.24

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

Chernomorets

1.04

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

Chernomorets

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Chernomorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

70%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Chernomorets

74%

Draw or Chernomorets

56%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

21%

Chernomorets wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

76%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

42%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

17%

Chernomorets 1+ goals

68%

Chernomorets 2+ goals

32%

Chernomorets 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

59%

Chernomorets (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Chernomorets defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Chernomorets attack 1.04 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

44%

level

26%

Chernomorets scores more

30%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Alan Khugaev

11'

Vitaliy Stezhko

41'

T. Gagloev

46'

V. Nafikov← A. Chochiev

46'

R. Fishchenko← I. Rodionov

46'

R. Akbashev← D. Gurchenko

46'

A. Tchitchinadze← M. Uridia

56'

Vyacheslav Krotov

64'

N. Abdokov← D. Kokoev

64'

I. Moskalenchik← T. Toboev

71'

A. Antonov← O. Krasilnichenko

73'

B. Khadartsev← T. Gagloev

79'

N. Nikiforov← E. Ivanov

83'

Z. Tarba← A. Khugaev

86'

V. Nafikov

90+4'

Anri Chichinadze

Statistics

AlaniyaChernomorets

Discipline

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0