Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1–0 Rubin Yalta

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rubin Yalta

7/6/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Akademii Fk Alaniya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II20%

×Draw22%

Rubin Yalta58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz IIExpected goals in this matchRubin Yalta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.97

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.08

Rubin Yalta

1.97

Rubin Yalta creates 82% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 48 away

1.12

creates per match

1.17

2.78

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.12

Rubin Yalta

1.17

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

2.78

Rubin Yalta

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Rubin Yalta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Rubin Yalta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw

42%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Rubin Yalta

78%

Draw or Rubin Yalta

80%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+

7%

Rubin Yalta wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals

66%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals

29%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals

10%

Rubin Yalta 1+ goals

86%

Rubin Yalta 2+ goals

58%

Rubin Yalta 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)

26%

Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Rubin Yalta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Rubin Yalta attack 1.17 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more

20%

level

22%

Rubin Yalta scores more

58%

Rubin Yalta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rubin Yalta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff