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Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Legion Dynamo — Second League - Group 1 2020

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
7/29/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion Spartak - Zapasnoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II21%
×Draw21%
Legion Dynamo59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.15
Legion Dynamo
2.08

Legion Dynamo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 89 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.12
Legion Dynamo
1.39

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.78
Legion Dynamo
1.18

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw
41%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Legion Dynamo
79%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
79%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
8%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
68%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
32%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
11%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
87%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
61%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
26%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
21%
level
21%
Legion Dynamo scores more
59%

Legion Dynamo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Legion Dynamo

Legion Dynamo beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak - Zapasnoe pole in Vladikavkaz.