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Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
11/7/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II18%
×Draw21%
Kuban Kholding61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.04
Kuban Kholding
2.06

Kuban Kholding creates 98% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 91 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.12
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.78
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw
39%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Kuban Kholding
79%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
82%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
7%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
65%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
28%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
9%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
87%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
61%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
23%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
18%
level
21%
Kuban Kholding scores more
61%

Kuban Kholding at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Kuban Kholding

Kuban Kholding beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.