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Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Chernomorets — Second League - Group 1 2020

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
FT
4 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Chernomorets
Chernomorets
3/27/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II15%
×Draw18%
Chernomorets67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.99
Chernomorets
2.34

Chernomorets creates 136% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 46 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.12
Chernomorets
1.91

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.78
Chernomorets
0.85

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par
Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Chernomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw
33%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Chernomorets
82%
Draw or Chernomorets
85%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
5%
Chernomorets wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
63%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
26%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
8%
Chernomorets 1+ goals
90%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
67%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
18%
Chernomorets (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Chernomorets defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Chernomorets attack 1.91 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
15%
level
18%
Chernomorets scores more
67%

Chernomorets at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 4–6 Chernomorets

Chernomorets beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 6-4 in Second League - Group 1 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Yessentuki Arena in Yessentuki.