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Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Biolog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Biolog
Biolog
9/3/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II25%
×Draw21%
Biolog53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.35
Biolog
2.04

Biolog creates 51% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 73 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.12
Biolog
1.30

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.78
Biolog
1.59

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par
Biolog+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Biolog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw
47%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Biolog
79%
Draw or Biolog
75%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
11%
Biolog wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
74%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
39%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
15%
Biolog 1+ goals
87%
Biolog 2+ goals
60%
Biolog 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
32%
Biolog (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Biolog away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Biolog defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Biolog attack 1.30 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
25%
level
21%
Biolog scores more
53%

Biolog at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Biolog

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II and Biolog drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.