Alaniya II 2–0 Volgar Astrakhan: Result & Stats

Alaniya II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Volgar Astrakhan

10/9/2020

First League · Round 14Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II54%

×Draw24%

Volgar Astrakhan22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya IIExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.97

Alaniya II

1.69

Volgar Astrakhan

0.97

Alaniya II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 76 away

2.14

creates per match

0.93

1.00

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Alaniya II

2.14

Volgar Astrakhan

0.93

allows per match

Alaniya II

1.00

Volgar Astrakhan

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw

78%

Alaniya II or Volgar Astrakhan

76%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

46%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+

30%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals

82%

Alaniya II 2+ goals

50%

Alaniya II 3+ goals

24%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

62%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

25%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)

71%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alaniya II scores more

54%

level

24%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

22%

Alaniya II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff