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Alaniya II vs TOM Tomsk — First League 2018

Alaniya II
Alaniya II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
2/27/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II55%
×Draw24%
TOM Tomsk21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya II
1.73
TOM Tomsk
0.96

Alaniya II creates 80% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 74 away

creates per match

Alaniya II
2.14
TOM Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Alaniya II
1.00
TOM Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par
TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

TOM Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw
79%
Alaniya II or TOM Tomsk
76%
Draw or TOM Tomsk
45%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+
31%
TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals
82%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
52%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
25%
TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
62%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
25%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)
73%
TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

TOM Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + TOM Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

TOM Tomsk attack 0.91 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alaniya II scores more
55%
level
24%
TOM Tomsk scores more
21%

Alaniya II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Alaniya II 2–3 TOM Tomsk

TOM Tomsk beat Alaniya II 3-2 in First League on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.