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Alaniya II vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2018

Alaniya II
Alaniya II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
9/23/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II55%
×Draw23%
Spartak Moscow 222%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya II
1.87
Spartak Moscow 2
1.09

Alaniya II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 73 away

creates per match

Alaniya II
2.14
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Alaniya II
1.00
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw
78%
Alaniya II or Spartak Moscow 2
77%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
45%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+
32%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals
85%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
56%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
29%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
66%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
30%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)
72%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.87

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alaniya II scores more
55%
level
23%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
22%

Alaniya II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya II vs Spartak Moscow 2

Alaniya II beat Spartak Moscow 2 2-1 in First League on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.