Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alaniya II vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2018

Alaniya II
Alaniya II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
11/29/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II47%
×Draw26%
Nizhny Novgorod27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya II
1.52
Nizhny Novgorod
1.09

Alaniya II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 53 away

creates per match

Alaniya II
2.14
Nizhny Novgorod
1.19

allows per match

Alaniya II
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
0.89

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw
73%
Alaniya II or Nizhny Novgorod
74%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
53%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+
24%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals
78%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
45%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
20%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
66%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
30%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)
63%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alaniya II scores more
47%
level
26%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
27%

Alaniya II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya II vs Nizhny Novgorod

Alaniya II and Nizhny Novgorod drew 0-0 in First League on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.