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Alaniya II vs Irtysh Omsk — First League 2018

Alaniya II
Alaniya II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
3/6/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II58%
×Draw23%
Irtysh Omsk19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya II
1.79
Irtysh Omsk
0.93

Alaniya II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Alaniya II
2.14
Irtysh Omsk
0.86

allows per match

Alaniya II
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.43

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw
81%
Alaniya II or Irtysh Omsk
77%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
42%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+
33%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals
83%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
53%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
26%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
61%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
24%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)
75%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.86 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alaniya II scores more
58%
level
23%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
19%

Alaniya II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya II vs Irtysh Omsk

Alaniya II beat Irtysh Omsk 1-0 in First League on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.