Alaniya II 2–0 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Alaniya II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fakel Voronezh

4/7/2021

First League · Round 35Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II52%

×Draw24%

Fakel Voronezh24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya IIExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.10

Alaniya II

1.73

Fakel Voronezh

1.10

Alaniya II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 89 away

2.14

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Alaniya II

2.14

Fakel Voronezh

1.20

allows per match

Alaniya II

1.00

Fakel Voronezh

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw

76%

Alaniya II or Fakel Voronezh

76%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

48%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+

28%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals

82%

Alaniya II 2+ goals

52%

Alaniya II 3+ goals

25%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

67%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

30%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)

68%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.73

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alaniya II scores more

52%

level

24%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

24%

Alaniya II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff