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Alaniya II vs CSKA Moscow — Cup 2019

Alaniya II
Alaniya II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
9/25/2019CupCup · 16th FinalsRespublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alaniya II38%
×Draw25%
CSKA Moscow37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya II
1.46
CSKA Moscow
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 26 away

creates per match

Alaniya II
2.00
CSKA Moscow
1.58

allows per match

Alaniya II
1.25
CSKA Moscow
0.92

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw
63%
Alaniya II or CSKA Moscow
75%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
62%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+
18%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals
77%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
43%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
18%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
76%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
41%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)
51%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.00 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

CSKA Moscow attack 1.58 + Alaniya II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alaniya II scores more
38%
level
25%
CSKA Moscow scores more
37%

Alaniya II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya II vs CSKA Moscow

CSKA Moscow beat Alaniya II 3-1 in Cup on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.