Alaniya II 1–1 Chayka: Result & Stats

Alaniya II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chayka

11/15/2020

First League · Round 22Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II58%

×Draw23%

Chayka20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya IIExpected goals in this matchChayka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.97

Alaniya II

1.85

Chayka

0.97

Alaniya II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 68 away

2.14

creates per match

0.94

1.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Alaniya II

2.14

Chayka

0.94

allows per match

Alaniya II

1.00

Chayka

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par

Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Chayka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw

80%

Alaniya II or Chayka

77%

Draw or Chayka

42%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+

33%

Chayka wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals

84%

Alaniya II 2+ goals

55%

Alaniya II 3+ goals

28%

Chayka 1+ goals

62%

Chayka 2+ goals

25%

Chayka 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)

75%

Chayka (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Chayka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Chayka defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

Chayka attack 0.94 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alaniya II scores more

58%

level

23%

Chayka scores more

20%

Alaniya II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff