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Alamal Atbara vs Hilal El-Fasher — Sudani Premier League 2019

Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
FT
1 – 0
Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
1/24/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 6Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Alamal Atbara43%
×Draw30%
Hilal El-Fasher27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alamal Atbara
1.17
Hilal El-Fasher
0.86

Alamal Atbara creates 36% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 77 away

creates per match

Alamal Atbara
1.08
Hilal El-Fasher
0.86

allows per match

Alamal Atbara
0.87
Hilal El-Fasher
1.26

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par
Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw
73%
Alamal Atbara or Hilal El-Fasher
70%
Draw or Hilal El-Fasher
57%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
18%
Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
69%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
33%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
11%
Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
58%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
21%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
61%
Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.08 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hilal El-Fasher attack 0.86 + Alamal Atbara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more
43%
level
30%
Hilal El-Fasher scores more
27%

Alamal Atbara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alamal Atbara vs Hilal El-Fasher

Alamal Atbara beat Hilal El-Fasher 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.