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Alamal Atbara vs Hay Al Wadi — Sudani Premier League 2019

Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
FT
1 – 1
Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
7/5/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 24Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Alamal Atbara40%
×Draw31%
Hay Al Wadi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alamal Atbara
1.10
Hay Al Wadi
0.89

Alamal Atbara creates 24% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 86 away

creates per match

Alamal Atbara
1.08
Hay Al Wadi
0.90

allows per match

Alamal Atbara
0.87
Hay Al Wadi
1.13

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par
Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Hay Al Wadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw
71%
Alamal Atbara or Hay Al Wadi
69%
Draw or Hay Al Wadi
60%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
16%
Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
67%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
30%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
10%
Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
59%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
22%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
58%
Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Hay Al Wadi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.08 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hay Al Wadi attack 0.90 + Alamal Atbara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more
40%
level
31%
Hay Al Wadi scores more
29%

Alamal Atbara at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alamal Atbara vs Hay Al Wadi

Alamal Atbara and Hay Al Wadi drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on July 5, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.