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Alamal Atbara vs Al Hilal Kadougli — Sudani Premier League 2019

Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
FT
2 – 0
Al Hilal Kadougli
Al Hilal Kadougli
2/6/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 8Family Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alamal Atbara48%
×Draw28%
Al Hilal Kadougli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alamal Atbara
1.32
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.83

Alamal Atbara creates 59% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 43 away

creates per match

Alamal Atbara
1.08
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.79

allows per match

Alamal Atbara
0.87
Al Hilal Kadougli
1.56

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par
Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Al Hilal Kadougli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw
76%
Alamal Atbara or Al Hilal Kadougli
72%
Draw or Al Hilal Kadougli
52%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
23%
Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
73%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
38%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
15%
Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals
56%
Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals
20%
Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
67%
Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Al Hilal Kadougli away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.08 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.79 + Alamal Atbara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more
48%
level
28%
Al Hilal Kadougli scores more
24%

Alamal Atbara at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Alamal Atbara 2–0 Al Hilal Kadougli

Alamal Atbara beat Al Hilal Kadougli 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Family Club Stadium in Khartoum.