Alamal Atbara 1–1 Al-Ahly Merowe: Result & Stats

Alamal Atbara

FT

1 – 1

Al-Ahly Merowe

11/24/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 10Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Alamal Atbara46%

×Draw30%

Al-Ahly Merowe24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alamal AtbaraExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahly Merowe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.78

Alamal Atbara

1.22

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.78

Alamal Atbara creates 56% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 74 away

1.08

creates per match

0.70

0.87

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Alamal Atbara

1.08

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.70

allows per match

Alamal Atbara

0.87

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw

76%

Alamal Atbara or Al-Ahly Merowe

70%

Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe

54%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+

21%

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals

70%

Alamal Atbara 2+ goals

34%

Alamal Atbara 3+ goals

12%

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

54%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

18%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)

66%

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.08 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Alamal Atbara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more

46%

level

30%

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

24%

Alamal Atbara at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff