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Alamal Atbara vs Al Ahli Wad Medani — Sudani Premier League 2025

Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1/10/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 1Barber Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Alamal Atbara30%
×Draw29%
Al Ahli Wad Medani41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alamal Atbara
1.00
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.21

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Alamal Atbara
1.00
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.41

allows per match

Alamal Atbara
1.00
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.00

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par
Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Al Ahli Wad Medani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw
59%
Alamal Atbara or Al Ahli Wad Medani
71%
Draw or Al Ahli Wad Medani
70%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
11%
Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
63%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
26%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
8%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
70%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
34%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
43%
Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.00 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.41 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more
30%
level
29%
Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
41%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alamal Atbara vs Al Ahli Wad Medani

Alamal Atbara and Al Ahli Wad Medani drew 2-2 in Sudani Premier League on January 10, 2025.

The match was played at Barber Stadium in Berber.