Alajuelense W 0–4 NJ/NY Gotham FC W: Result & Stats

Alajuelense W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

9/6/2024

CONCACAF W Champions Cup · Group Stage - 2Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alajuelense W16%

×Draw18%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W66%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alajuelense WExpected goals in this matchNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.50

Alajuelense W

1.18

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

2.50

NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 112% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

4.00

1.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Alajuelense W

1.50

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

4.00

allows per match

Alajuelense W

1.00

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alajuelense W+0.00on par

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alajuelense W ↓

NJ/NY Gotham FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Alajuelense W or draw

34%

Alajuelense W or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

82%

Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

84%

Winning margin

Alajuelense W wins by 2+

6%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Alajuelense W 1+ goals

69%

Alajuelense W 2+ goals

33%

Alajuelense W 3+ goals

12%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals

92%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals

71%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Alajuelense W (draw refunded)

20%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alajuelense W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alajuelense W attack 1.50 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 4.00 + Alajuelense W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Alajuelense W scores more

16%

level

18%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more

66%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff