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Alaior vs Arenal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Alaior
Alaior
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Arenal
Arenal
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 12Estadio Los Pinos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Alaior48%
×Draw28%
Arenal24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaior
1.38
Arenal
0.89

Alaior creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Alaior
0.82
Arenal
0.59

allows per match

Alaior
1.18
Arenal
1.94

finishing

Alaior+0.00on par
Arenal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaior ↓

Arenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alaior or draw
76%
Alaior or Arenal
72%
Draw or Arenal
52%

Winning margin

Alaior wins by 2+
23%
Arenal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alaior 1+ goals
75%
Alaior 2+ goals
40%
Alaior 3+ goals
16%
Arenal 1+ goals
59%
Arenal 2+ goals
22%
Arenal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alaior (draw refunded)
67%
Arenal (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaior at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Arenal away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaior attack 0.82 + Arenal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.38

Arenal attack 0.59 + Alaior defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alaior scores more
48%
level
28%
Arenal scores more
24%

Alaior at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alaior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Alaior 2–1 Arenal

Alaior beat Arenal 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Los Pinos in Menorca.