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Álafoss vs KFG — Cup 2026

Álafoss
Álafoss
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 0
KFG
KFG
Unknown 87', 86', 80', 64', 51', 50'
4/4/2024CupCup · 1st RoundFagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Álafoss31%
×Draw18%
KFG51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Álafoss
2.48
KFG
3.13

KFG creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Álafoss
1.20
KFG
2.25

allows per match

Álafoss
4.00
KFG
3.75

finishing

Álafoss+0.00on par
KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Álafoss ↓

KFG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Álafoss or draw
49%
Álafoss or KFG
82%
Draw or KFG
69%

Winning margin

Álafoss wins by 2+
17%
KFG wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Álafoss 1+ goals
92%
Álafoss 2+ goals
70%
Álafoss 3+ goals
44%
KFG 1+ goals
95%
KFG 2+ goals
81%
KFG 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Álafoss (draw refunded)
38%
KFG (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Álafoss at home — creates 1.20, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

KFG away — creates 2.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Álafoss attack 1.20 + KFG defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.48

KFG attack 2.25 + Álafoss defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Álafoss scores more
31%
level
18%
KFG scores more
51%

KFG at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "KFG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
51'
64'
80'
86'
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Álafoss vs KFG

KFG beat Álafoss 6-0 in Cup on April 4, 2024.

Goals: ? (50', 51', 64', 80', 86', 87').

The match was played at Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras in Mosfellsbær.