Al Zoma Khartoum 1–1 Al Hilal Port Sudan

Al Zoma Khartoum

FT

1 – 1

Al Hilal Port Sudan

4/12/2023

Sudani Premier League · Round 28Kober Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Zoma Khartoum29%

×Draw29%

Al Hilal Port Sudan42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Zoma KhartoumExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Port Sudan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.21

Al Zoma Khartoum

0.94

Al Hilal Port Sudan

1.21

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 57 away

0.86

creates per match

1.21

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Al Zoma Khartoum

0.86

Al Hilal Port Sudan

1.21

allows per match

Al Zoma Khartoum

1.21

Al Hilal Port Sudan

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Zoma Khartoum+0.00on par

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zoma Khartoum ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Zoma Khartoum or draw

58%

Al Zoma Khartoum or Al Hilal Port Sudan

71%

Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan

71%

Winning margin

Al Zoma Khartoum wins by 2+

10%

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Zoma Khartoum 1+ goals

61%

Al Zoma Khartoum 2+ goals

24%

Al Zoma Khartoum 3+ goals

7%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals

70%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals

34%

Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Zoma Khartoum (draw refunded)

40%

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zoma Khartoum at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zoma Khartoum attack 0.86 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.21 + Al Zoma Khartoum defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Zoma Khartoum scores more

29%

level

29%

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more

42%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff