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Al Zawra'a vs ZOB Ahan — AFC Champions League 2018

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
5/7/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Karbala International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Zawra'a57%
×Draw19%
ZOB Ahan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
2.39
ZOB Ahan
1.50

Al Zawra'a creates 59% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
2.67
ZOB Ahan
1.67

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
1.33
ZOB Ahan
2.11

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
76%
Al Zawra'a or ZOB Ahan
81%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
43%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
36%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
91%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
69%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
42%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
78%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
44%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
71%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 2.67 + ZOB Ahan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.39

ZOB Ahan attack 1.67 + Al Zawra'a defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
57%
level
19%
ZOB Ahan scores more
24%

Al Zawra'a at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al Zawra'a 2–2 ZOB Ahan

Al Zawra'a and ZOB Ahan drew 2-2 in AFC Champions League on May 7, 2019.

The match was played at Karbala International Stadium in Karbala.