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Al Zawra'a vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2020

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
6/29/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 34Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Al Zawra'a48%
×Draw28%
Naft Maysan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.38
Naft Maysan
0.89

Al Zawra'a creates 55% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.45
Naft Maysan
1.06

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.71
Naft Maysan
1.31

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
76%
Al Zawra'a or Naft Maysan
72%
Draw or Naft Maysan
52%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
23%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
75%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
40%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
16%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
59%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
22%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
67%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.45 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
48%
level
28%
Naft Maysan scores more
24%

Al Zawra'a at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Zawra'a 1–2 Naft Maysan

Naft Maysan beat Al Zawra'a 2-1 in Iraqi League on June 29, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.