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Al Zawra'a vs Manama — AFC Cup 2018

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Manama
Manama
4/16/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Karbala Sports City (Karbala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Zawra'a55%
×Draw25%
Manama20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.60
Manama
0.85

Al Zawra'a creates 88% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.70
Manama
0.50

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
1.20
Manama
1.50

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Manama+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Manama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
80%
Al Zawra'a or Manama
75%
Draw or Manama
45%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
29%
Manama wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
80%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
47%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
22%
Manama 1+ goals
57%
Manama 2+ goals
21%
Manama 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
73%
Manama (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Manama away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.70 + Manama defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Manama attack 0.50 + Al Zawra'a defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
55%
level
25%
Manama scores more
20%

Al Zawra'a at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Zawra'a 2–1 Manama

Al Zawra'a beat Manama 2-1 in AFC Cup on April 16, 2018.

The match was played at Karbala Sports City (Karbala).