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Al Zawra'a vs Goa — AFC Champions League Two 2025

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Goa
Goa
H. Abdulkareem 65'
R. Kadhim 38'
D. Ismael 51' (OG)
11/26/2025AFC Champions League TwoAFC Champions League Two · Group Stage - 5Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Zawra'a66%
×Draw19%
Goa14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
2.21
Goa
0.92

Al Zawra'a creates 140% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.75
Goa
0.33

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
1.50
Goa
2.67

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Goa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
86%
Al Zawra'a or Goa
81%
Draw or Goa
34%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
43%
Goa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
89%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
65%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
38%
Goa 1+ goals
60%
Goa 2+ goals
23%
Goa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
82%
Goa (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Goa away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.75 + Goa defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

Goa attack 0.33 + Al Zawra'a defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
66%
level
19%
Goa scores more
14%

Al Zawra'a at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
R. KadhimAl Zawra'aAl Zawra'a · D
7.9

Match Events

6'
Ayush Dev Chhetri
27'
Clarence Bitang
30'
Kadhim Raad Albu Mohammed
34'
Ayush Dev Chhetri
34'
Ayush Dev Chhetri
38'
R. Kadhim
45'
Borja Herrera
46'
M. Qasim← M. Humaidan
51'
D. IsmaelOwn goal
65'
S. M. Mahdi Al Saedi← D. Ismael
65'
R. Bani Hani← K. Nabeel
65'
H. Abdulkareem
74'
J. Siverio← I. Guarrotxena
74'
A. Rabeeh A K← D. Drazic
82'
H. Patre← S. Tavora
82'
M. Nemil← B. Fernandes
85'
Nizar Mahmoud Al-Rashdan
85'
M. Mohammad← Ibrahim
85'
H. Abdulkareem← N. Al Rashdan
90+1'
U. Singh← B. Singh

Possession

73%Al

Shots

13Al

Pass accuracy

56%Al

Statistics

AlGoa
Overview
73%Possession27%
13Total Shots3
9Corners2
12Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots3
7On Target0
3Off Target1
3Blocked2
6Inside Box2
7Outside Box1
Passing
73%Possession27%
588Total Passes214
530Accurate Passes149
90%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
3Offsides2

AFC Champions League Two: Al Zawra'a 2–1 Goa

Al Zawra'a beat Goa 2-1 in AFC Champions League Two on November 26, 2025.

Goals: R. Kadhim (38'), D. Ismael (51' o.g.), H. Abdulkareem (65').

Al Zawra'a controlled possession (73%) and registered 13 shots to 3.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Baghdad.