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Al Zawra'a vs Duhok — Iraqi League 2025

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Duhok
Duhok
M. Mohammad 89'
A. Hashem 12'
A. Alsanati 73'
R. Al Alawi 10'
5/1/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 32Duhok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Zawra'a46%
×Draw26%
Duhok28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.48
Duhok
1.11

Al Zawra'a creates 33% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.48
Duhok
1.42

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.81
Duhok
1.47

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Duhok+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Duhok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
72%
Al Zawra'a or Duhok
74%
Draw or Duhok
54%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
23%
Duhok wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
77%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
43%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
19%
Duhok 1+ goals
67%
Duhok 2+ goals
30%
Duhok 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
62%
Duhok (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Duhok away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.48 + Duhok defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Duhok attack 1.42 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
46%
level
26%
Duhok scores more
28%

Al Zawra'a at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
R. Al Alawi
12'
A. Hashem
73'
A. Alsanati
89'
M. Mohammad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Zawra'a 2–2 Duhok

Al Zawra'a and Duhok drew 2-2 in Iraqi League on May 1, 2026.

Goals: R. Al Alawi (10'), A. Hashem (12'), A. Alsanati (73'), M. Mohammad (89').

The match was played at Duhok Stadium in Duhok.