Al Zawra'a 1–0 Diyala: Result & Stats

Al Zawra'a

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Diyala

M. Soro Nanga 0 90+10'

5/8/2025

Iraqi League · Round 32Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Al Zawra'a45%

×Draw29%

Diyala26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Zawra'aExpected goals in this matchDiyala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.88

Al Zawra'a

1.25

Diyala

0.88

Al Zawra'a creates 42% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 32 away

1.33

creates per match

0.88

0.87

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Al Zawra'a

1.33

Diyala

0.88

allows per match

Al Zawra'a

0.87

Diyala

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Diyala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Diyala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw

74%

Al Zawra'a or Diyala

71%

Draw or Diyala

55%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+

20%

Diyala wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals

71%

Al Zawra'a 2+ goals

36%

Al Zawra'a 3+ goals

13%

Diyala 1+ goals

59%

Diyala 2+ goals

22%

Diyala 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)

63%

Diyala (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Diyala away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.33 + Diyala defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Diyala attack 0.88 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more

45%

level

29%

Diyala scores more

26%

Al Zawra'a at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

IbrahimGoal Disallowed

90+10'

M. Soro Nanga 0

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff