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Al Zawra'a vs Al Simawa — Iraqi League 2020

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Simawa
Al Simawa
1/22/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 15Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Zawra'a65%
×Draw23%
Al Simawa13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.75
Al Simawa
0.62

Al Zawra'a creates 182% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.45
Al Simawa
0.53

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.71
Al Simawa
2.05

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Al Simawa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Al Simawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
87%
Al Zawra'a or Al Simawa
77%
Draw or Al Simawa
35%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
38%
Al Simawa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
83%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
52%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
25%
Al Simawa 1+ goals
46%
Al Simawa 2+ goals
13%
Al Simawa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
84%
Al Simawa (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Al Simawa away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.45 + Al Simawa defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.75

Al Simawa attack 0.53 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
65%
level
23%
Al Simawa scores more
13%

Al Zawra'a at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Zawra'a 1–0 Al Simawa

Al Zawra'a beat Al Simawa 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 22, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.