Al Zawra'a 1–2 Al-Qasim: Result & Stats

Al Zawra'a

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Al-Qasim

6/15/2025

Iraqi League · Round 35Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al Zawra'a53%

×Draw27%

Al-Qasim20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Zawra'aExpected goals in this matchAl-Qasim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.78

Al Zawra'a

1.46

Al-Qasim

0.78

Al Zawra'a creates 87% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 109 away

1.45

creates per match

0.85

0.71

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Al Zawra'a

1.45

Al-Qasim

0.85

allows per match

Al Zawra'a

0.71

Al-Qasim

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par

Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Al-Qasim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw

80%

Al Zawra'a or Al-Qasim

73%

Draw or Al-Qasim

47%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+

27%

Al-Qasim wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals

77%

Al Zawra'a 2+ goals

43%

Al Zawra'a 3+ goals

18%

Al-Qasim 1+ goals

54%

Al-Qasim 2+ goals

18%

Al-Qasim 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)

73%

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Al-Qasim away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.48 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.45 + Al-Qasim defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al-Qasim attack 0.85 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more

53%

level

27%

Al-Qasim scores more

20%

Al Zawra'a at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff