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Al Zawra'a vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2025

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
M. Mohammad 50'
Ibrahim 22' (pen)
A. Abdulzahra 24'
6/25/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 37Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Al Zawra'a47%
×Draw28%
Al Minaa Basra24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.31
Al Minaa Basra
0.85

Al Zawra'a creates 54% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 35 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.33
Al Minaa Basra
0.83

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.87
Al Minaa Basra
1.29

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
76%
Al Zawra'a or Al Minaa Basra
72%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
53%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
22%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
73%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
38%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
14%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
57%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
21%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
66%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.33 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.83 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
47%
level
28%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
24%

Al Zawra'a at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
IbrahimPenalty
24'
A. Abdulzahra
50'
M. Mohammad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Zawra'a 2–1 Al Minaa Basra

Al Zawra'a beat Al Minaa Basra 2-1 in Iraqi League on June 25, 2025.

Goals: Ibrahim (22' pen), A. Abdulzahra (24'), M. Mohammad (50').

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Baghdād.