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Al Zawra'a vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2020

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
Mahdi Kamil 6'
J. Mapay 42'
4/18/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 28Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Zawra'a52%
×Draw27%
Al Minaa Basra21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.42
Al Minaa Basra
0.78

Al Zawra'a creates 82% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.45
Al Minaa Basra
0.86

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.71
Al Minaa Basra
1.40

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
79%
Al Zawra'a or Al Minaa Basra
73%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
48%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
26%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
76%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
41%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
17%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
54%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
18%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
72%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.45 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
52%
level
27%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
21%

Al Zawra'a at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Mahdi Kamil
42'
J. Mapay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Zawra'a 1 – 1 Al Minaa Basra

Al Zawra'a and Al Minaa Basra drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on April 18, 2021.

Goals: Mahdi Kamil (6'), J. Mapay (42').

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.