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Al Zawra'a vs Al-Karma — Iraqi League 2020

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Karma
Al-Karma
4/16/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 28Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Al Zawra'a42%
×Draw29%
Al-Karma30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.23
Al-Karma
0.99

Al Zawra'a creates 24% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 37 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.45
Al-Karma
1.27

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.71
Al-Karma
1.00

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Al-Karma+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Al-Karma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
70%
Al Zawra'a or Al-Karma
71%
Draw or Al-Karma
58%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
18%
Al-Karma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
71%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
35%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
13%
Al-Karma 1+ goals
63%
Al-Karma 2+ goals
26%
Al-Karma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
58%
Al-Karma (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Al-Karma away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.45 + Al-Karma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al-Karma attack 1.27 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
42%
level
29%
Al-Karma scores more
30%

Al Zawra'a at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Zawra'a 2–0 Al-Karma

Al Zawra'a beat Al-Karma 2-0 in Iraqi League on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Baghdād.