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Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba vs Merreikh Nyala — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Merreikh Nyala
Merreikh Nyala
2/4/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 6Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba46%
×Draw29%
Merreikh Nyala25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.29
Merreikh Nyala
0.88

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.20
Merreikh Nyala
0.75

allows per match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.00
Merreikh Nyala
1.38

finishing

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba+0.00on par
Merreikh Nyala+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba ↓

Merreikh Nyala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba or draw
75%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba or Merreikh Nyala
71%
Draw or Merreikh Nyala
54%

Winning margin

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba wins by 2+
21%
Merreikh Nyala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 1+ goals
72%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 2+ goals
37%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 3+ goals
14%
Merreikh Nyala 1+ goals
59%
Merreikh Nyala 2+ goals
22%
Merreikh Nyala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba (draw refunded)
64%
Merreikh Nyala (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Merreikh Nyala away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba attack 1.20 + Merreikh Nyala defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Merreikh Nyala attack 0.75 + Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba scores more
46%
level
29%
Merreikh Nyala scores more
25%

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba vs Merreikh Nyala

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba and Merreikh Nyala drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 4, 2025.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium in Kosti.