Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 1–1 Hilal El-Fasher

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hilal El-Fasher

1/27/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 5Rabak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba33%

×Draw30%

Hilal El-Fasher38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Zamala Umm RuwabaExpected goals in this matchHilal El-Fasher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.11

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba

1.01

Hilal El-Fasher

1.11

Hilal El-Fasher creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba

1.20

Hilal El-Fasher

1.22

allows per match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba

1.00

Hilal El-Fasher

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba+0.00on par

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba or draw

62%

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba or Hilal El-Fasher

70%

Draw or Hilal El-Fasher

67%

Winning margin

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba wins by 2+

12%

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 1+ goals

64%

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 2+ goals

27%

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 3+ goals

8%

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals

67%

Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals

30%

Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba (draw refunded)

46%

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba attack 1.20 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.22 + Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba scores more

33%

level

30%

Hilal El-Fasher scores more

38%

Hilal El-Fasher at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff