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Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
2/7/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 7Rabak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba43%
×Draw31%
Al Rabta Kosti26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.14
Al Rabta Kosti
0.81

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.20
Al Rabta Kosti
0.62

allows per match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.00
Al Rabta Kosti
1.08

finishing

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba or draw
74%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba or Al Rabta Kosti
69%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
57%

Winning margin

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba wins by 2+
18%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 1+ goals
68%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 2+ goals
32%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 3+ goals
11%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
56%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
19%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba (draw refunded)
63%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba attack 1.20 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.62 + Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba scores more
43%
level
31%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
26%

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba vs Al Rabta Kosti

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba and Al Rabta Kosti drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 7, 2025.

The match was played at Rabak Stadium in Rabak.