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Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba vs Al Fajr — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Al Fajr
Al Fajr
2/14/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba51%
×Draw23%
Al Fajr26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.85
Al Fajr
1.25

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.20
Al Fajr
1.50

allows per match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.00
Al Fajr
2.50

finishing

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba+0.00on par
Al Fajr+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba ↓

Al Fajr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba or draw
74%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba or Al Fajr
77%
Draw or Al Fajr
49%

Winning margin

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba wins by 2+
29%
Al Fajr wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 1+ goals
84%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 2+ goals
55%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 3+ goals
28%
Al Fajr 1+ goals
71%
Al Fajr 2+ goals
36%
Al Fajr 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba (draw refunded)
66%
Al Fajr (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Al Fajr away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba attack 1.20 + Al Fajr defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Al Fajr attack 1.50 + Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba scores more
51%
level
23%
Al Fajr scores more
26%

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba vs Al Fajr

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba beat Al Fajr 5-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 14, 2026.