Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Wihdat vs Sharjah FC — AFC Cup 2018

Al Wihdat
Al Wihdat
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
12/3/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Amman International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Wihdat36%
×Draw28%
Sharjah FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wihdat
1.15
Sharjah FC
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al Wihdat
1.29
Sharjah FC
1.29

allows per match

Al Wihdat
1.00
Sharjah FC
1.00

finishing

Al Wihdat+0.00on par
Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wihdat ↓

Sharjah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Wihdat or draw
64%
Al Wihdat or Sharjah FC
72%
Draw or Sharjah FC
64%

Winning margin

Al Wihdat wins by 2+
15%
Sharjah FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Wihdat 1+ goals
68%
Al Wihdat 2+ goals
32%
Al Wihdat 3+ goals
11%
Sharjah FC 1+ goals
68%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
32%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Wihdat (draw refunded)
50%
Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wihdat at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wihdat attack 1.29 + Sharjah FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sharjah FC attack 1.29 + Al Wihdat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Wihdat scores more
36%
level
28%
Sharjah FC scores more
36%

Al Wihdat at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Wihdat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Wihdat 1–3 Sharjah FC

Sharjah FC beat Al Wihdat 3-1 in AFC Cup on December 3, 2024.

The match was played at Amman International Stadium in Amman.