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Al Wihdat vs Al-Wasl FC — AFC Cup 2018

Al Wihdat
Al Wihdat
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
10/1/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2King Abdullah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Wihdat37%
×Draw27%
Al-Wasl FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wihdat
1.27
Al-Wasl FC
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Wihdat
1.29
Al-Wasl FC
1.50

allows per match

Al Wihdat
1.00
Al-Wasl FC
1.25

finishing

Al Wihdat+0.00on par
Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wihdat ↓

Al-Wasl FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Wihdat or draw
64%
Al Wihdat or Al-Wasl FC
73%
Draw or Al-Wasl FC
63%

Winning margin

Al Wihdat wins by 2+
16%
Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Wihdat 1+ goals
72%
Al Wihdat 2+ goals
36%
Al Wihdat 3+ goals
14%
Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
71%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
36%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Wihdat (draw refunded)
51%
Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wihdat at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Al-Wasl FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wihdat attack 1.29 + Al-Wasl FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al-Wasl FC attack 1.50 + Al Wihdat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Wihdat scores more
37%
level
27%
Al-Wasl FC scores more
36%

Al Wihdat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Wihdat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Wihdat 1–2 Al-Wasl FC

Al-Wasl FC beat Al Wihdat 2-1 in AFC Cup on October 1, 2025.

The match was played at King Abdullah Stadium in Amman.