Al Wihdat 1–1 Al-Faisaly FC: Result & Stats

Al Wihdat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Faisaly FC

4/8/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Wihdat34%

×Draw31%

Al-Faisaly FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al WihdatExpected goals in this matchAl-Faisaly FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

Al Wihdat

0.98

Al-Faisaly FC

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.29

creates per match

0.67

1.29

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Al Wihdat

1.29

Al-Faisaly FC

0.67

allows per match

Al Wihdat

1.29

Al-Faisaly FC

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wihdat+0.00on par

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wihdat ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Wihdat or draw

66%

Al Wihdat or Al-Faisaly FC

69%

Draw or Al-Faisaly FC

66%

Winning margin

Al Wihdat wins by 2+

13%

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Wihdat 1+ goals

62%

Al Wihdat 2+ goals

26%

Al Wihdat 3+ goals

8%

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

62%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

26%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Wihdat (draw refunded)

50%

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wihdat at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wihdat attack 1.29 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.67 + Al Wihdat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Al Wihdat scores more

34%

level

31%

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

34%

Al Wihdat at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Al Wihdat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff