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Al Wehda vs Ibri — Professional League 2019

Al Wehda
Al Wehda
FT
0 – 2
Ibri
Ibri
10/15/2023Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 8Sur Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Wehda23%
×Draw23%
Ibri54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wehda
1.08
Ibri
1.78

Ibri creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 35 away

creates per match

Al Wehda
0.73
Ibri
0.91

allows per match

Al Wehda
2.64
Ibri
1.43

finishing

Al Wehda+0.00on par
Ibri+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wehda ↓

Ibri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Wehda or draw
46%
Al Wehda or Ibri
77%
Draw or Ibri
77%

Winning margin

Al Wehda wins by 2+
9%
Ibri wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Al Wehda 1+ goals
66%
Al Wehda 2+ goals
29%
Al Wehda 3+ goals
10%
Ibri 1+ goals
83%
Ibri 2+ goals
53%
Ibri 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Al Wehda (draw refunded)
30%
Ibri (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wehda at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Ibri away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wehda attack 0.73 + Ibri defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ibri attack 0.91 + Al Wehda defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al Wehda scores more
23%
level
23%
Ibri scores more
54%

Ibri at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ibri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Al Wehda 0–2 Ibri

Ibri beat Al Wehda 2-0 in Professional League on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sur Sports Complex in Sur.