Al-Wehda 0–1 Almahalla: Result & Stats

Al-Wehda

FT

0 – 1

Almahalla

5/21/2021

Premier League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Wehda27%

×Draw32%

Almahalla42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-WehdaExpected goals in this matchAlmahalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.07

Al-Wehda

0.79

Almahalla

1.07

Almahalla creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

0.55

creates per match

0.87

1.27

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Al-Wehda

0.55

Almahalla

0.87

allows per match

Al-Wehda

1.27

Almahalla

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Wehda+0.00on par

Almahalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wehda ↓

Almahalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al-Wehda or draw

58%

Al-Wehda or Almahalla

68%

Draw or Almahalla

73%

Winning margin

Al-Wehda wins by 2+

8%

Almahalla wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al-Wehda 1+ goals

55%

Al-Wehda 2+ goals

19%

Al-Wehda 3+ goals

5%

Almahalla 1+ goals

66%

Almahalla 2+ goals

29%

Almahalla 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al-Wehda (draw refunded)

39%

Almahalla (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wehda at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Almahalla away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wehda attack 0.55 + Almahalla defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.79

Almahalla attack 0.87 + Al-Wehda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al-Wehda scores more

27%

level

32%

Almahalla scores more

42%

Almahalla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almahalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff