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Al Wehda vs Al Seeb — Professional League 2019

Al Wehda
Al Wehda
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Al Seeb
Al Seeb
9/27/2023Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 6Sur Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Wehda9%
×Draw17%
Al Seeb73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wehda
0.65
Al Seeb
2.22

Al Seeb creates 242% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 79 away

creates per match

Al Wehda
0.73
Al Seeb
1.80

allows per match

Al Wehda
2.64
Al Seeb
0.56

finishing

Al Wehda+0.00on par
Al Seeb+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wehda ↓

Al Seeb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–214%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Wehda or draw
27%
Al Wehda or Al Seeb
83%
Draw or Al Seeb
91%

Winning margin

Al Wehda wins by 2+
2%
Al Seeb wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Al Wehda 1+ goals
48%
Al Wehda 2+ goals
14%
Al Wehda 3+ goals
3%
Al Seeb 1+ goals
89%
Al Seeb 2+ goals
65%
Al Seeb 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Al Wehda (draw refunded)
11%
Al Seeb (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wehda at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Al Seeb away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.56 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wehda attack 0.73 + Al Seeb defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.65

Al Seeb attack 1.80 + Al Wehda defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Al Wehda scores more
9%
level
17%
Al Seeb scores more
73%

Al Seeb at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Al Seeb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Al Wehda 0–4 Al Seeb

Al Seeb beat Al Wehda 4-0 in Professional League on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Sur Sports Complex in Sur.