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Al Wehda vs Al Nasr — Professional League 2019

Al Wehda
Al Wehda
FT
2 – 3
Al Nasr
Al Nasr
11/6/2023Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 9Ibri Youth Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Wehda16%
×Draw22%
Al Nasr61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Wehda
0.82
Al Nasr
1.83

Al Nasr creates 123% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 78 away

creates per match

Al Wehda
0.73
Al Nasr
1.03

allows per match

Al Wehda
2.64
Al Nasr
0.91

finishing

Al Wehda+0.00on par
Al Nasr+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wehda ↓

Al Nasr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Wehda or draw
39%
Al Wehda or Al Nasr
78%
Draw or Al Nasr
84%

Winning margin

Al Wehda wins by 2+
5%
Al Nasr wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Al Wehda 1+ goals
56%
Al Wehda 2+ goals
20%
Al Wehda 3+ goals
5%
Al Nasr 1+ goals
84%
Al Nasr 2+ goals
54%
Al Nasr 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Al Wehda (draw refunded)
21%
Al Nasr (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wehda at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Al Nasr away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wehda attack 0.73 + Al Nasr defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Al Nasr attack 1.03 + Al Wehda defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al Wehda scores more
16%
level
22%
Al Nasr scores more
61%

Al Nasr at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Al Wehda 2–3 Al Nasr

Al Nasr beat Al Wehda 3-2 in Professional League on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Ibri Youth Complex in Ibri.