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Al-Wehda vs Al Ahli Tripoli — Premier League 2019

Al-Wehda
Al-Wehda
FT
0 – 2
Al Ahli Tripoli
Al Ahli Tripoli
4/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Wehda14%
×Draw29%
Al Ahli Tripoli57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Wehda
0.51
Al Ahli Tripoli
1.31

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 157% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al-Wehda
0.55
Al Ahli Tripoli
1.35

allows per match

Al-Wehda
1.27
Al Ahli Tripoli
0.46

finishing

Al-Wehda+0.00on par
Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wehda ↓

Al Ahli Tripoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–121%
0–214%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al-Wehda or draw
43%
Al-Wehda or Al Ahli Tripoli
71%
Draw or Al Ahli Tripoli
86%

Winning margin

Al-Wehda wins by 2+
3%
Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Al-Wehda 1+ goals
40%
Al-Wehda 2+ goals
9%
Al-Wehda 3+ goals
2%
Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals
73%
Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals
38%
Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Wehda (draw refunded)
20%
Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wehda at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Al Ahli Tripoli away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wehda attack 0.55 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.51

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 1.35 + Al-Wehda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al-Wehda scores more
14%
level
29%
Al Ahli Tripoli scores more
57%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Wehda 0–2 Al Ahli Tripoli

Al Ahli Tripoli beat Al-Wehda 2-0 in Premier League on April 10, 2021.