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Al-Wehda vs Abu Salim — Premier League 2019

Al-Wehda
Al-Wehda
FT
0 – 2
Abu Salim
Abu Salim
6/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Wehda28%
×Draw32%
Abu Salim40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Wehda
0.81
Abu Salim
1.04

Abu Salim creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 61 away

creates per match

Al-Wehda
0.55
Abu Salim
0.82

allows per match

Al-Wehda
1.27
Abu Salim
1.07

finishing

Al-Wehda+0.00on par
Abu Salim+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wehda ↓

Abu Salim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al-Wehda or draw
60%
Al-Wehda or Abu Salim
68%
Draw or Abu Salim
72%

Winning margin

Al-Wehda wins by 2+
9%
Abu Salim wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al-Wehda 1+ goals
56%
Al-Wehda 2+ goals
19%
Al-Wehda 3+ goals
5%
Abu Salim 1+ goals
65%
Abu Salim 2+ goals
28%
Abu Salim 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Wehda (draw refunded)
41%
Abu Salim (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wehda at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Abu Salim away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wehda attack 0.55 + Abu Salim defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.81

Abu Salim attack 0.82 + Al-Wehda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Wehda scores more
28%
level
32%
Abu Salim scores more
40%

Abu Salim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Abu Salim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Wehda 0–2 Abu Salim

Abu Salim beat Al-Wehda 2-0 in Premier League on June 4, 2021.