Al Wehda Club 3–0 ZOB Ahan: Result & Stats

Al Wehda Club

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ZOB Ahan

Mohamed Al Akbari 65'

M. Batna 57'

S. Tagliabúe 45+1'

3/12/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Zayed Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Wehda Club48%

×Draw20%

ZOB Ahan32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Wehda ClubExpected goals in this matchZOB Ahan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.87

Al Wehda Club

2.30

ZOB Ahan

1.87

Al Wehda Club creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

2.71

creates per match

1.60

2.14

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Al Wehda Club

2.71

ZOB Ahan

1.60

allows per match

Al Wehda Club

2.14

ZOB Ahan

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wehda Club+0.00on par

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wehda Club ↓

ZOB Ahan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Al Wehda Club or draw

68%

Al Wehda Club or ZOB Ahan

80%

Draw or ZOB Ahan

52%

Winning margin

Al Wehda Club wins by 2+

28%

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Al Wehda Club 1+ goals

90%

Al Wehda Club 2+ goals

67%

Al Wehda Club 3+ goals

40%

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals

85%

ZOB Ahan 2+ goals

56%

ZOB Ahan 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Al Wehda Club (draw refunded)

60%

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wehda Club at home — creates 2.71, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wehda Club attack 2.71 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.30

ZOB Ahan attack 1.60 + Al Wehda Club defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Wehda Club scores more

48%

level

20%

ZOB Ahan scores more

32%

Al Wehda Club at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Wehda Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

B. Dzsudzsák

Al Wehda Club · M

8.6

Match Events

45+1'

S. Tagliabúe↳ B. Dzsudzsák

46'

G. Hadadifar← A. Imani

50'

Balázs Dzsudzsák

52'

Salem Sultan

57'

M. Batna↳ B. Dzsudzsák

62'

M. Rajabzadeh← M. Hosseini

65'

Mohamed Al Akbari↳ M. Batna

67'

Ahmed Al Akberi← Nasser Abdulhadi

69'

Ghasem Hadadifar

72'

Hamid Bouhamdan

72'

Ismaeil Matar← Mohamed Al Akbari

73'

Mohammad Al Abdullah

74'

Rabih Ataya← B. Rahmani

79'

Hamdan Al Kamali← Saleem Sultan Al Sharjee

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlZOB

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots11

9Corners3

18Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots11

9On Target4

2Off Target3

6Blocked4

9Inside Box7

8Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

473Total Passes280

406Accurate Passes207

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides5