Al Wehda Club 1–2 Bisha: Result & Stats

Al Wehda Club

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bisha

3/30/2022

Division 1 · Round 30King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Wehda Club53%

×Draw25%

Bisha22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Wehda ClubExpected goals in this matchBisha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.96

Al Wehda Club

1.62

Bisha

0.96

Al Wehda Club creates 69% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

1.61

creates per match

0.63

1.28

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Al Wehda Club

1.61

Bisha

0.63

allows per match

Al Wehda Club

1.28

Bisha

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wehda Club+0.00on par

Bisha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wehda Club ↓

Bisha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Wehda Club or draw

78%

Al Wehda Club or Bisha

75%

Draw or Bisha

47%

Winning margin

Al Wehda Club wins by 2+

28%

Bisha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Wehda Club 1+ goals

80%

Al Wehda Club 2+ goals

48%

Al Wehda Club 3+ goals

22%

Bisha 1+ goals

62%

Bisha 2+ goals

25%

Bisha 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Wehda Club (draw refunded)

70%

Bisha (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wehda Club at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Bisha away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wehda Club attack 1.61 + Bisha defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.62

Bisha attack 0.63 + Al Wehda Club defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Wehda Club scores more

53%

level

25%

Bisha scores more

22%

Al Wehda Club at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Wehda Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff