Al Wehda Club 1–2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Result & Stats

Al Wehda Club

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

5/27/2024

Pro League · Round 34King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Al Wehda Club23%

×Draw22%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Wehda ClubExpected goals in this matchAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.96

Al Wehda Club

1.21

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.96

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 126 away

1.43

creates per match

2.29

1.63

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Al Wehda Club

1.43

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.29

allows per match

Al Wehda Club

1.63

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wehda Club+0.00on par

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wehda Club ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al Wehda Club or draw

45%

Al Wehda Club or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

78%

Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

77%

Winning margin

Al Wehda Club wins by 2+

9%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Al Wehda Club 1+ goals

70%

Al Wehda Club 2+ goals

34%

Al Wehda Club 3+ goals

12%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

86%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

58%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Al Wehda Club (draw refunded)

30%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wehda Club at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.63 · 94 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wehda Club attack 1.43 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.29 + Al Wehda Club defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Wehda Club scores more

23%

level

22%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

55%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff